Author: Procyon Partners

Stocks saw major dispersion in the first quarter of 2023, with the Nasdaq rallying 17.1% for its best quarter since 2020. Meanwhile, Large Value lagged (+1.0%), primarily due to underperformance in Financials, which were down (-5.6%). Small Caps (+2.7%) also lagged, as Financials make up a larger percentage of the Russell 2000 Index versus the S&P 500. Overall, the S&P 500 finished the quarter up 7.5%. As shown below, five of the seven best performing stocks in the S&P 500 were in the Tech sector, while six of the seven worst performing stocks were in the Financial sector. Historically a strong first quarter bodes well for the remainder of the year. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 gained over 7% in the first quarter, the full year has never been negative.

The issues that plagued Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are also a challenge throughout the financial industry to varying degrees. Banks like SVB saw enormous success and a surge in deposits in the years leading up to 2022, in part due to an era of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. As a result, banks invested this excess cash in Treasuries and other similar securities, but some banks reached for yield and invested in longer duration securities. A sudden pivot by the Fed away from low rates (due to surging inflation) led to large unrealized losses in these securities as yields surged and bond values decreased. Banks are normally able to use an accounting method called “Held to Maturity” (HTM) to avoid losses, as long as these bonds are held until maturity. The surge in Treasury yields since 2022 left many bank’s HTM securities massively underwater, and a run on smaller banks forced them to unload their HTM securities at a loss in order to replenish deposit ratios.

  • It’s important to note the government guaranteed all deposits for SVB and Signature Bank because they were in receivership and deemed a “systematic risk exception.”
  • Over the past few weeks, Banks have seen their deposits decline by a record $300 Billion. After SVB went under, some deposits that left Small Banks went into Large Banks. Other deposits moved to higher yielding Money Market Funds, with a record $5.2 Trillion in these funds (see Chart #1).
  • To improve liquidity and stability, Banks utilized the Fed’s Discount Window and the Fed’s newly established Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Both allow Banks to borrow short-term loans from the Fed by providing collateral (i.e. Government Bonds) at Face Value, regardless of market price. This resulted in the biggest surge in borrowing using the Discount Window since 2008 (see Chart #2).
  • Usage of the Fed’s Facilities resulted in a jump in the Fed’s Balance Sheet by $300 billion, despite QT.
  • The Dodd-Frank Act tried to reduce concentration among Banks, but we expect further consolidation now.
  • According to Apollo, tighter financial conditions and lending standards equates to an additional 150 basis points in the Fed Funds Rate. Already, Bank Lending has plummeted (see chart #3).
  • Alternative Assets are seeing continued demand from asset flows as investors look to diversify their return streams. Venture Capital and Private Equity are likely to see underperformance in the short term as multiple compression can have a lagged effect from the public to private markets, and this will likely provide liquidity in the form of supply to the secondary market. Private credit, lending, and non-residential real estate remain stable as this asset class operates parallel to bank and public market lending. We have seen a broad dispersion of hedge fund performance in 2022 with some funds logging their best numbers in many years with leveraged short positions on the bond market, while others, with large investments in Big Tech and Crypto, fell 90%+. For 2023, it is unclear whether we can have a repeat performance of hedge fund managers, or if that dispersion will narrow. 

It’s not unusual for a Tightening Cycle to result in a Financial Crisis. In response, the Fed has historically either Eased or Paused. In some instances, a Recession was avoided (i.e. 1984 Failure of Continental Illinois), while other times a Recession quickly followed (i.e. Global Financial Crisis).

In the past, a financial shock/crisis has never ended until the Fed paused or cut rates. The Fed’s response to the recent Banking Crisis is highly unusual, as the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points in March and continued Quantitative Tightening. Prior to the Banking Crisis, markets were pricing in a 50 basis point hike, but financial stability took precedence over price stability. The Fed continues to be in the difficult position of trying to battle high inflation while also managing a crisis in the Regional Banking system. Procyon believes the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, especially with a deep inversion of the yield curve continuing.

In March, the Fed raised rates to a range of 4.75-5.00% and released its updated “Dot Plot,” which showed a majority of FOMC participants forecasting just one additional rate hike in 2023. The market continues to price in a much different outlook for rates, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the second half of 2023. In looking at the past 30 years (going back to 1994), there have been five prior rate hiking cycles – including the current cycle.


In the prior four cycles, equities rallied after the last rate hike except in 2000 during the bursting of the Tech Bubble. The end of the current rate hiking cycle could be bullish for equities.

The resulting implication on the CMBS market has been a large increase in the perceived risk of those commercial loans and the widening of option-adjusted spreads. Essentially repricing the cost of borrowing for commercial borrowers, relative to other borrowers. Our committee is monitoring the broader credit markets as we see potential for pockets of risk to be identified through the current rate hiking cycle. More recently the Procyon Investment Committee dug deeper into the Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities market to gain some insight on what appears to be a potential headwind to economic growth in the US in the coming quarters. It is important to note that while the overall CMBS market has shown a steady delinquency rate over the last twelve months, we are seeing delinquencies rise in office space specifically. As borrowing rates have risen and post-pandemic work habits have taken some time to unwind, the demand for office space has not bounced back as fast as landlords would have liked.

The resulting implication on the CMBS market has been a large increase in the perceived risk of those commercial loans and the widening of option-adjusted spreads. Essentially repricing the cost of borrowing for commercial borrowers, relative to other borrowers.

Our committee is monitoring the broader credit markets as we see potential for pockets of risk to be identified through the current rate hiking cycle.



As we have mentioned in previous commentary, there are some key tenets we are basing our current Macro Economic scenarios on and a quick review is as follows:

  • We believe the Fed. If the FED says they will fight inflation, then they are committed to conducting policy with that outcome in focus. The Fed market “put” is gone.
  • In order for interest rates to remain as they are i.e. the end of the hiking cycle one of two things needs to occur:
    • Inflation (CPI) falls below 4% on an annualized basis and is sustained for several readings
    • Unemployment will need to go above 5% and be sustained for multiple readings
    • Current CPI is 5% Annualized as of March 23 and the unemployment rate is currently sitting at 3.5%
  • In order for Interest rates to decline:
    • A deep recession needs to occur for the FED to consider inflation a lesser threat to prosperity.
    • Major bank failure: a major bank failure would create a sufficient decline in economic activity as to counteract inflation and would result in a tightening effect.
    • Recent regional bank failures may provide some economic slowing. The overall environment in the markets continues to present a unique landscape. While we continue to see macroeconomic expectations overwhelming the headlines, we continue to focus on diversification, quality and cash flows as we act prudently in this challenging period for our clients. As you enter new periods in your life with new goals and evolving risk tolerances, we encourage to contact your advisor as proactive planning and risk management are key values at Procyon. Thank you for the trust you place in us.


As we reflect on the markets from 2022, we are forced to think back a bit further to the initial onset of zero rates and Fed balance sheet expansion that began more than a decade earlier. Through several cycles both economic and geopolitical, including a period of rapid globalization beginning in 2009, low inflation persisted in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis through most of the 2010s. Interest rates were headed higher for a short time to correct the glut of liquidity when the Covid-19 Pandemic led us back down the road to even easier liquidity and lower rates.

2020 and 2021 saw the benefits of these efforts with massive gains across most asset classes as liquidity, in the form of both monetary and fiscal support flooded the economy and markets. Economies around the world closed and reopened as they battled waves of Covid-19; all while seeing demand for countless consumer products increase around the globe.

As the demand pressures mounted during 2021 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made the distinction that the visible price increases were “transient”, and the core measures of inflation were more stable. As we now understand, “transient” is no longer an appropriate term to characterize the current inflationary environment. In 2022, we saw the Federal Reserve increase rates at a pace never seen before as they attempted to stomp out the inflationary pressures becoming embedded in the US economy. We have seen asset prices react negatively across the board as a result of the tightening of monetary policy.

As we review 2022, it’s clear that the implications of investor responses around major events can become complex. On the following page we’ve included an interesting exhibit that summarizes how an investor may have responded to major events from last year, and how the market subsequently reacted as well.

The Fed’s Fight Against Inflation

After a 7.1% YoY CPI reading in November, the Fed slowed down its level of rate hike to 50 basis points (from 75 bps). Beginning in 2023, the Fed also slowed its rate hike to 25 basis points, starting at the first Fed meeting on February 1st. Despite the slowdown in the size of rate hikes, Fed Chair Powell has been firm in his stance of expecting higher rates for longer. While the market expects rate cuts in 2023, the FOMC’s latest quarterly projections highlight the Fed Funds Rate ending 2023 at a level of 5-5.25%.

China’s COVID Policies 

China maintained strict Covid-policies in 2022, resulting in a slowing of the world’s second-largest economy and even civil unrest. Late in Q4 2022, reports surfaced that China was planning to significantly roll back these strict policies in early 2023. Since then, China has scrapped its 8-day inbound quarantine requirement for travelers, facilitated visa applications for foreigners, and stated there would be no limit to gathering in public. These early attempts to reopen have been met with a surge in COVID cases throughout the country, testing the government’s commitment to this shift in policy. 

Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine War continues with no end in sight. Along with geopolitical concerns, the War has destabilized the energy & commodities market, particularly in Europe. Further escalation with nuclear weapons remains the biggest threat. A ceasefire remains unlikely in the short-term. Russia remains adamant that Ukraine recognizes annexed territories such as Donetsk & Luhansk, while Ukraine refuses to cede territory to Russia in any negotiations. Longerterm, the health of the Russian Economy, Army, and Vladmir Putin could be a catalyst for an end to the War. 

A resolution to any of these could be a bullish for the markets in 2023. 

The December CPI report showed inflation decreased to – 0.1% month-over-month, its lowest level of 2022. Inflation is down from a peak level of 9.1% in June 2022, as the Fed has undergone one of the fastest hiking cycles in 40 years (from roughly 0% to 4.50-4.75%). Goods inflation has continued to decelerate (i.e., used autos), but rent prices and wages are proving to be stickier. Wage inflation is of particular focus to the Fed, as it attempts to cool down a tight labor market. Along with raising rates, the Fed is draining liquidity in the system through Quantitative Tightening. As described at the beginning of this commentary, the Fed responded to previous shocks to the financial system (2008 & 2020) with “Quantitative Easing”; and the Fed Balance Sheet ballooned from less than $1 Trillion in 2008 to roughly $9 Trillion. In June 2022, the Fed officially reversed course and turned to Quantitative Tightening by letting Treasuries & Mortgage- Backed Securities mature without reinvestment. Finally, another tool at the Fed’s disposal is the use of forward guidance. At its December 14th meeting, the Fed released projections that showed FOMC participants expected rates to finish 2023 at a range of 5-5.25%. This was higher than anticipated, but perhaps even worse, this forecast implied no rate cuts in 2023 (differing from market expectations). This forecast was a major catalyst for the year-end selloff. 

The Good: Labor Market 

One constant strength in the overall economy in 2022 was the Labor market. Nonfarm Payrolls have been resilient all year despite negative headlines regarding layoffs (specifically in the Tech sector) and job openings still outnumber the unemployed by roughly 4 million. This is illustrated in Chart 1 below. 

The Bad: Equity Market 

Equity markets were quite resilient in the face of geopolitical worries, lockdowns in China, and the fastest tightening cycle in decades. Still, 2023 earnings expectations have been revised downward, and dispersion remains high. Large Value (-7.5%) outperformed Large Growth (-29.1%) in 2022 by the widest margin since 2000, and Energy was the top performing sector (up 65.7%), while Communications was the biggest laggard (-39.9%). 

The Ugly: Bond Market 

Bond markets experienced one of their worst years in history, as treasury yields surged. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked in 2022 from a low of 0.73% to a peak of 4.41%, while the 10-year yield rose from 1.52% to 3.88%. Even more concerning, a large majority of the Treasury curve is inverted. While not every yield curve inversion signals a Recession, the 10 year-3 month yield curve is deeply inverted by 54 basis points – which is its most inverted level since the Financial Crisis and Tech Bubble (see Chart 2). 

Looking Ahead to 2023

In 2023 we expect the US Federal Reserve will face a choice between accepting a higher average level of inflation (3.5- 4%) or drive the US economy towards recession by sticking to their 2% inflation mandate. By contrast, most other major economies have already passed this junction, and have made their choices. In Europe, the choice was a recession, and it was not made by governments or central bankers but imposed by Vladimir Putin. In China, the choice of recession was driven not by economics but by the draconian politics of Covid. Japan’s 30 years of deflation made inflation the obvious choice. Britain, meanwhile, has bounced from Liz Truss’s tolerance of inflation to recessionary austerity under Rishi Sunak. The US is unique in having a central bank, a government, and most major sell-side Economists all arguing a painful choice will not be required between high inflation and severe recession. If this is right, and the US reduces its inflation without experiencing a severe recession—and without even imposing positive real interest rates—it will be an unprecedented achievement. But if the belief in painless disinflation is wrong, the US economy and financial markets will need to adjust when this choice between recession and inflation becomes unavoidable. The biggest challenge for financial markets is that the prospect of 2-3.5% inflation is not in the foreseeable future. Markets keep expecting a dovish Fed, but the Fed has told us they will tighten to a terminal rate of 5-5.25%. Ultimately the big question is whether the Fed will accept a higher plateau of inflation of 4+% vs the original 2% target? The Fed is trying to project an image of hawkishness but also looking to avoid a severe recession at all costs. 

Investment Implications

  • If investors accept that there will now be a higher US inflation plateau, that means higher US 10-year yields. This adds risk to the long maturities of the bond market.

  • U.S equities have seen severe valuation compression – especially in the Tech sector. Given the move in short risk-free rates, it appears that this valuation compression is rational and justified. For 2023, we believe earnings becomes the focus for investors as the ability to manage through a higher rate environment becomes evident.

  • Two widely respected names in the industry, David Tepper and Jeremy Siegel, have vastly different forecasts for 2023. On the bullish side, Jeremy Siegel believes the market deserves a 20x multiple and there will be upside to 2023 Earnings (i.e., $240), which would result in a possible S&P 500 price of 4,800 (20 * 240 = 4,800). David Tepper, on the other hand, is bearish and believes the market deserves a 12x multiple on lower 2023 Earnings. If we use $225 for 2023 EPS, this would result in an S&P 500 price of 2,700 (12 & 225 = 2,700). These two examples show the discrepancy in forecasts for next year.

  • A market multiple of roughly 16-17x next year’s earnings is fair based on interest rate levels (see chart 3), but 2023 Earnings Expectations may continue to be revised downward as higher interest rates take their toll on the economy.

  • Equity rotation from Growth to Value is a continued focus as the US economy stays stronger for longer and China reopens. Major long-term rotation continues from Growth stocks/COVID gainers to Value stocks with growing earnings expectations. We remain cautious on Large Cap Technology. This sector is valuation-challenged at a time when fundamentals, especially around online advertising, and social media, are still deteriorating and competition is increasing. Additionally, we continue to think that globally, greater government regulation of Tech is increasingly on the table at a time when global geopolitical competition is heating up.

  • US Small Caps are getting interesting for long-term investors. The Russell 2000’s forward 12 months P/E ratio has fallen to 10.8x, its lowest level since 1990 and 30% below its long-term average. On a relative basis, the Russell 2000’s forward 12-month P/E is trading at the lowest level versus large-cap stocks since the Tech Bubble.

  • China and commodity producing EM’s should outperform the US and Europe. Cyclical hedges that might work as the dollar weakens, include select EM and Commodities (such as Oil and Copper). Most investors, regardless of region, are overweight dollar-based assets. This decision has been the right one in recent years, but the technical picture is indicative to us that we should add additional exposure in the form of select EM markets.

  • Alternative Assets are seeing continued demand from asset flows as investors look to diversify their return streams. Venture Capital and Private Equity are likely to see underperformance in the short term as multiple compression can have a lagged effect from the public to private markets, and this will likely provide liquidity in the form of supply to the secondary market. Private credit, lending, and non-residential real estate remain stable as this asset class operates parallel to bank and public market lending. We have seen a broad dispersion of hedge fund performance in 2022 with some funds logging their best numbers in many years with leveraged short positions on the bond market, while others, with large investments in Big Tech and Crypto, fell 90%+. For 2023, it is unclear whether we can have a repeat performance of hedge fund managers, or if that dispersion will narrow. 


Major Risks to Expectations for 2023

  1. Growth Collapses – The US GDP growth expectation (JP Morgan) for 2023 is 1%, which is a slowdown from 2022. If the US has a deep recession as a result of overtightening and asset prices collapse the equity markets will have a difficult time. 

  2. Inflation Crashes – In this case the Fed would not be forced to raise rates further and we can return to a <2% inflationary environment. If this were to occur, then Large Cap Growth stocks would be preferred as asset-light companies may reemerge to outperform. 


Please contact your Wealth Advisor at Procyon Partners to discuss how this review may apply to your personal investment objectives. We appreciate your trust through these difficult periods of market stress. As always, we will continue to navigate the sometimes-treacherous waters of the global investment environment on your behalf.

Thank you for your continued support and confidence in the Procyon team.

Best Regards,

Procyon Partners 

There’s increasing interest in employing annuities in retirement plans, but plan sponsors need to review the products carefully.

A 401(k) retirement-savings plan doesn’t guarantee the availability of funding through the entire life of the account owner. Outcomes depend mainly on:

  • The amount of funding available.
  • The longevity of the account owner.
  • Market conditions and investment performance.

There’s another factor in the shape of an annuity designed to provide a fixed stream of income for life. But the strength of the stock market through most of the past 40 years, subdued price inflation until very recently, a general sense that annuities were overpriced and regulatory hesitation have conspired to put that solution on ice. That is, until recently — and we’ll get to that vital point in a moment.


Savers understand that the value of assets can drop, and stay down for decades. It took the S&P
500 about 25 years to recover from the Crash of 1929. Another trough marred absolute performance from the early 1970s through the mid-1990s, despite a surge in relative performance that began in 1982. Indeed, the setbacks the stock market has encountered since then — the crash of ‘87, the dot-com downturn, and the Great Recession of ‘08 — now look less like hard stops than temporary setbacks. But uncertainty always hurts, especially when, as now, stocks are down, and bond yields flirt with historic lows despite the recent (and unsettling) emergence of general price inflation.

Between feeling one’s finances aren’t ready for retirement and taking remedial action before it’s too late stand a clutch of unanswerable queries:

  • When will the stock market bounce back?
  • When will inflation stop eroding value?
  • Are we heading into a global recession?
  • Even if we bounce off a downturn once again, will we have to endure slow growth for years to come?

The pain these questions conjure for retirement savers comes less from each in isolation than from their aggregate impact on savers’ ability to make plans. Plainly, it’s hard to set personal finance goals when the value of money is softening, bond yields are in question and stocks look tired. And there are no easy answers, no quick fixes. Modern portfolio theory suggests ditching stocks for cash can do more harm than good. By the same token, eliminating bonds altogether could deprive savers of a cushion with a low historic correlation to stocks.


No wonder 81% of retirement plan participants surveyed by the Retirement Income Institute late in 2021 were interested in a guaranteed income option for their retirement plans. Boiled down, they want a portion of their income savings to behave like their grandparents’ defined-benefit plans by providing a fixed monthly stipend as a basis for budgeting, longer-term retirement needs and legacy planning.

“Workers value knowing how much they can safely spend more than any other characteristic of a retirement savings plan,” according to the report. At the same time, retirement savers aren’t keen to go all-in on annuities. In aggregate, the Retirement Income Institute says plan members given a choice to allocate savings among stocks, bonds, and an income annuity would place 33.5% of their total savings in an income annuity — a proportion that skews a bit higher for older and lower-income plan participants. In plain terms, most retirement plan owners want growth from stocks that’s balanced by bonds and augmented by an income stream they can count on.

Fortunately, the SECURE Act of 2019 makes it easier to add annuity options to tax-deferred retirement plans. Pre-SECURE Act products that facilitate sustainable withdrawals have been around for ages, but it takes an insurance-linked annuity to guarantee such an outcome — and new provisions in the legislation have afforded safe harbor protections for plan sponsors that want to incorporate annuity options into their tax-deferred retirement plans.


While the product pipeline for SECURE Act-friendly annuities is a work in progress, insurers and asset managers are competing to get their wares to market. As always, the results are and will continue to be mixed. Maybe more to the point, no one product is ever suited to every circumstance.

As a firm that specializes in advising employers that sponsor qualified and nonqualified retirement plans, we recommend carefully reviewing retirement products. For annuities in particular, one should seek to:

  • Align your risk tolerance with that of the investment product.
  • Determine what kind of annuity — immediate or deferred — is called for.
  • Ascertain expected returns and compare them to annual fees.
  • Check and communicate the underlying insurance policy details.

Finally, seek a firm that has a role as a fiduciary since that means their conclusions are unbiased as they search for retirement plan products and configurations best suited to the needs of individual investors. In this way, employees feel more secure about their post-career lives, and plan sponsors have new incentives for attracting and retaining employees.

Amber Kendrick is vice president and retirement plan consultant with Shelton, Connecticutbased Procyon Partners, which specializes in advising employers that sponsor qualified and nonqualified retirement plans.
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With Addition of Team, $5.5 Billion Procyon Partners Expands Footprint with New Office in Maryland

St. Petersburg, Florida – November 7, 2022 – Procyon Partners announced today that Brian Turner will be joining the firm as a Private Wealth Advisor. He is accompanied by Selena Kemp, Senior Client Service Associate, and Zamena Bridglal, Client Service Associate. They will operate from the new office location in Fulton, Maryland.

Previously, Mr. Turner was a Senior Financial Advisor, Managing Director at Wells Fargo managing $247MM in client assets.

“I knew from the first call I had with Phil that Procyon was a firm that could provide our team and our clients with an extraordinary cultural fit,” said Brian Turner. “Our clients’ needs were leading our search for a better home. With Procyon, and the synthetic scale of Dynasty Financial Partners, we are better equipped to serve our clients.”

Procyon Partners’ new office in Fulton, Maryland will have the same open-concept and design as Procyon’s other offices and will include newly-minted ‘Zoom Rooms’ to provide an option for advisors and staff to hold private conversations or virtual calls in a well-appointed and functional private space.

“This office will allow us to expand the Procyon brand into Maryland in a very coveted location. We look forward to growing our business locally around Brian Turner and his team by attracting clients and other advisors looking to find a better way to serve their clients and build their careers,” commented Phil Fiore, CEO and Co-Founder of Procyon Partners.

Procyon Partners has been growing rapidly in 2022. As recently as October 6th, Procyon announced financial advisor Bob Alimena joined their firm in its Long Island office.

Procyon Partners is a member of the Dynasty Financial Partners’ Network of independent financial advisory firms.


Brian Turner
Private Wealth Advisor

Brian works with high-net-worth families, business owners, and tax-exempt organizations, helping them identify and honor the purpose of their finances. Brian develops comprehensive wealth management solutions specifically tailored to focus on the goals most important to each client.

With a finely tuned discovery process, Brian guides clients to make timely, educated decisions based on independent analysis and objective advice. He communicates with clarity and continuously monitors and evaluates his clients’ progress.

Brian began his career over fifteen years ago as a financial advisor at UBS Financial Services and later at Wells Fargo Advisors before joining Procyon Partners. Brian was also a founding partner of Gayda Vineyards in southern France. He is a graduate of the American University of Paris and a dual citizen of the US and the UK. He resides in Baltimore, Maryland, with his family. Brian teaches “Yoga for a Cause,” a weekly yoga class that donates all proceeds to charity. He encourages you to consider what your wealth truly is and to experience the joy of giving.

About Procyon Partners

Procyon Partners is an independent registered investment advisor with a dual focus on retirement plan/participants and private clients. With offices in Connecticut, NYC, Long Island, West Palm Beach, and Virginia Beach, the firm manages approximately $5.5B in client assets. On the institutional side, the firm helps companies and organizations design, manage, and enhance their retirement plan offerings while also educating plan participants on how to effectively prepare for their retirement. As a private wealth advisor, Procyon helps high-net-worth individuals, families and business owners identify and implement effective financial strategies for managing their investments and achieving their financial goals.

For more information visit.

Also visit Procyon Partners on social media:
LinkedIn –
Twitter: @ProcyonPartners

About Dynasty Financial Partners

Dynasty is a provider of technology-enabled wealth management solutions and business services for financial advisory firms primarily focused on serving high net worth and ultra-high net worth clients. Dynasty provides access to a comprehensive platform of software and technology tools, business services and holistic investment management capabilities through an open-architecture platform delivered via a suite of proprietary and third-party technologies. Dynasty’s technology, tools and services provide advisory firms the supported independence to launch their business, scale their operations and grow their firms — both organically and inorganically — while also allowing them to be more focused on and better equipped to serve their clients. Dynasty’s platform and offering have won multiple awards in recent years.

For more than a decade, Dynasty has championed the benefits of independent wealth management for high net worth and ultra-high net worth clients and has contributed to the movement of assets from traditional brokerage channels to the independent channels of wealth management. As Dynasty is becoming a recognized industry leader, Dynasty has differentiated itself by developing competitive strengths, including a deep understanding of and strong relationship with its clients, a comprehensive offering of services and technology-enabled solutions, the ability to leverage its size and breadth to invest, the flexibility and seamlessness enabled by a modular technology solution, the entrepreneurial culture and experienced and committed management team. Dynasty is committed to continually growing its business by facilitating existing advisory firm clients’ growth, onboarding new clients, increasing the clients’ use of its broader capabilities, launching additional solutions and carrying out complementary acquisitions.

For more information, please visit

Also visit Dynasty on social media:
Twitter: @DynastyFP

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Disclosure: This e-mail message, including any attachments, from Dynasty Financial Partners LLC (d/b/a Dynasty) or Dynasty Wealth Management LLC, a subsidiary of Dynasty, and registered investment advisor, or one of Dynasty’s affiliated subsidiaries, as indicated herein, is intended only for the individual to whom it is addressed. This e-mail may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the intended recipient (or the agent or employee responsible to deliver it to the intended recipient), you are hereby notified that any disclosure, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail in error, please notify the sender immediately and destroy this e-mail along with any attachments from your system. Thank you. *Dynasty Securities LLC is a limited purpose broker-dealer and functions as a paymaster in order to receive and pay commissions or transaction based revenues to and from third-parties in the following product lines: (a) Broker retailing corporate equity securities; (b) Broker retailing corporate debt securities; (c) Mutual fund retailer; (d) Private placement of securities; (e) Broker selling variable life insurance and annuities; (f) Broker selling interests in unregistered private investments.

The latest senior moves in the North American wealth management sector.

Procyon Partners
Procyon Partners, the US wealth firm with about $5.5 billion of client assets, has appointed former Wells Fargo advisor Brian Turner as a private wealth advisor.

Turner is joined by Selena Kemp, senior client service associate, and Zamena Bridglal, client service associate. They will operate from the new office in Fulton, Maryland.

At Wells Fargo, Turner was a senior financial advisor, overseeing $247 million in client assets. He began his career more than 15 years ago as a financial advisor at UBS Financial Services and later at Wells Fargo Advisors. Turner is also a founding partner of Gayda Vineyards in southern France. He is a graduate of the American University of Paris and a dual citizen of the US and the UK.

Procyon Partners’ new office in Fulton, Maryland will have the same open-concept and design as Procyon’s other offices and will include newly-minted “Zoom Rooms” to provide an option for advisors and staff to hold private conversations or virtual calls in a well-appointed and functional private space.

The firm also has offices in Connecticut, New York City, Long Island, West Palm Beach, and Virginia Beach.

In early October, Procyon said that financial advisor Bob Alimena had joined, based in its Long Island office.

The business is a member of the Dynasty Financial Partners’ Network of independent financial advisory firms.

As we witnessed the most significant drawdown in wealth since the 2008 financial crisis, the first three quarters of 2022 have collectively cost investors more than $9.5 trillion from the market’s high-water mark at the end of 2021. This includes the market value declines in both the public equity and fixed income markets.

The drawdown has been felt for both aggressive and conservative investors alike, as nominal and real rates of return are negative across almost all major public markets.
In times of stress our behaviors can dictate our outcomes and remaining patient through turbulent times has been a fundamental tenant throughout our investing careers. As difficult as it may sometimes be, we find that through active management and avoiding large behavioral mistakes we can navigate through market stress quite effectively. This is predicated on the ability of investors to be patient and allow time for asset prices to recover.

What do we think about stock prices today?

Fundamentally, current valuations can help derive future expectations for market returns. For several years, valuations in equity markets appeared stretched and a protracted Fed policy of zero-interest rates helped facilitate those valuations. That was true for a very long period. If we can remember, those policies began 14 years ago with the Great Financial Crisis. Ushered in by then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, who just recently received the Nobel Prize in Economics for that very work.

That regime appears to have ended as we enter a new, more normal, period of higher rates. As this occurs asset prices recalibrate, and stock market valuations appear to be the first casualty as the market price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has come down along with the Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio and several other key valuations measures. Now that we’re experiencing this regime change and a fundamental reset of asset prices, we can gather and interpret some data to help us discern what current levels may indicate about future returns.

As shown on the following page, the two charts are rolling 1 and 5 year returns from August of 1997 through September of 2022. On the left axis are the returns and the bottom axis are valuations.

On the following chart, you can see the current forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is ~15.1x , and indicates positive future returns for both the 1 and 5 year time periods. This means that we are seeing a readjustment of the number of years in advance an investor is willing to pay for today’s earnings. Even the highest valuation stocks have seen a recent contraction as illustrated in the valuation dispersion chart here.

Corporate Earnings:

Our team expects a mixed bag for earnings this quarter as we see the effects of inventory buildups in reaction to supply chain lags filter through the largest firms. Input costs have come down in recent months helping to dampen some of the expense pressures in critical markets, however wage growth will continue to weigh on earnings.

While the expectations for 3Q earnings have come down this year, the reported data and forward guidance will have a big influence on returns over the course of this earnings season. Price volatility is expected to continue. We do expect that earnings in cyclical sectors will tell us a bit more about where the economy stands and how consumers are making spending decisions.

Spending decisions are of course the US Central Bank’s end target. With rapidly rising prices stressing the budgets of the general population, the central bank is focused on increasing the cost of borrowing to dampen demand, and therefore the prices of goods and services. The current rate of price increases, 8.2% from the previous year as of September, is increasingly harmful if sustained over long periods.

To combat this dynamic the US central bank is making money more difficult to obtain. The potential for continued inflationary pressures signals that this interest rate cycle could last longer than some of the rising rate cycles in recent memory. There have been six “Fed Pivots” since interest rates peaked in 1984, and while there may be some starts and stops to the recent upward trend, the trend is clearly upward. While most asset allocators have had this expectation for some time it has come to fruition very quickly in 2022.

Recession & Jobs:

The topic of a recession in the US has been debated exhaustively by economists and commentators on business news. The fundamental definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, and as currently reported that is what we experienced in the first half of this year. The debate around whether we are experiencing a recession consistent with that definition really hinges on the prevailing low unemployment numbers across the country. Be that as it may, the job market is still quite robust by all measures. For example, there are currently 1.87 job openings per job seeker (USDL, JPM) which has been a key driver of wage growth. By way of comparison, the previous peak was just before the pandemic at ~1.25 jobs available per seeker. These numbers are likely to come down as the post pandemic economy normalizes further.

Our expectation is that the unemployment rate in the US will tick higher, job openings will contract, and wage growth will moderate in the coming quarters. While this may be truer for some industries versus others, we do expect a broad moderation in the job market across the US over the next year.

Base Case:

The Procyon Investment Committee has established a base case scenario for our economic expectations over both the short and long term. Over the short-term we believe the Fed will likely continue to increase rates until one of two scenarios come about:

  1. CPI data trends below 6% for multiple months
  2. Unemployment rises above 5%


There continues to be some potential for a “soft landing” if inflation slowly reverts to it’s mean at closer to 3.5% over a 1- 3 year period, but recent data suggests that is becoming harder and harder to achieve.

Higher rates are likely to place continued pressure on equity valuations and earnings in the coming quarters and as we enter the holiday spending season. As a result, our short-term tactical allocations reflect more conservative equity and fixed income positioning.

Over the long-term, we look to relative valuations for our expected returns, and continue to believe that broad asset allocation across small, mid and large cap equities will provide higher returns in the future. Accordingly, we have increased our exposure to areas where valuations are at historical lows relative to their long-term average, as well as the quality of core portfolio investments in recognition that more effective firm management teams should fare better in an environment defined by increasing costs to do business.

We also acknowledge that markets are a forecasting mechanism and that the rally in equities will likely begin before jobs losses reach their peak. We will of course continue to monitor the changes in the economy closely as we look for compelling opportunistic investments.

In addition, we remain positioned more heavily on the shorter end of the fixed income maturity ladder with rates expected to continue moving higher. High credit quality and active management provide long-term benefits in the bond market, and we are committed to making changes where necessary. We also see the potential for credit deterioration and have reduced our investments in high-yield securities in recent quarters as a result.

In summary for 3Q22:

  • We saw a continued reduction in public asset prices,
  • Valuations have come back down to their historical averages after being elevated throughout the “zero interest rate environment”,
  • 3Q earnings and 4Q shopping season are in focus,
  • The Fed is committed to rate increases until data suggests they stop, and
  • Portfolio positioning is conservative with a focus on higher


The Procyon Investment Committee is committed to providing insightful market analysis as we assess the evolving investment landscape. As fiduciaries, we are dedicated to our clients’ best interests and our principal goal is to make sure that we deliver exceptional advice to every client. We thank you for the continued trust you place in us as we help you navigate this challenging environment. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your financial goals or investment portfolio, please don’t hesitate to let us know.

Best Regards,

Procyon Partners

“Built by FAs for FAs,” Procyon Partners can “fully understand the issues and stresses” that advisors experience, according to chief executive officer Phil Fiore.

FA-IQ reached out to advisors to ask: Has the feverish pace of RIA M&A activity made you consider either acquiring another firm or selling your own?

Phil Fiore, chief executive officer of Procyon Partners. Shelton, Connecticut-based Fiore has been in the industry for 27 years and has $5.5 billion in client assets.

“Since the inception of Procyon Partners, we have been very active in the M&A marketplace. Since launching our firm in 2017, we have successfully transacted on seven deals that are all currently part of the Procyon brand.

Although we are not looking to sell our firm, we are very active in the M&A space. It is our contention that scale truly matters as a firm looks to deliver differentiated services and resources to its clients, and the quickest way to gain that scale is through acquisition or merger.

Phil Fiore

We also believe that there is incredible FA and customer service talent out there in the wirehouses, regional firms or running their own firm for that matter, that for one reason or another feel unfulfilled and unable to reach their true potential.

At the larger firms it may be that these FAs or support team members are being managed to the least common denominator, which doesn’t allow them to truly build a customized service/investment model for their clients. While, on the other hand, those that run their own RIAs are forced to take valuable client-focused time and divert that time to working ‘in’ the business so the lights stay on, so to speak.

It is Procyon’s contention and belief that we can unleash our FAs from those impediments and allow them to truly spread their wings and chase their destiny the way they believe they can and should.

We believe we are uniquely qualified to do this for our FAs as we are a firm ‘built by FAs for FAs.’ We fully understand the issues and stresses that FAs deal with on a day-to-day basis and our job as leaders of Procyon is to allow our FAs to focus on the things that make them truly unique and fulfilled, which in turn results in a more successful Procyon. A win-win for everyone, as it should be.”

Happy 246th Birthday to the United States of America! Paraphrasing the incomparable Erma Louise Bombeck (1927- 1996): “You have to love a Nation that celebrates its Independence every July 4…with family picnics where kids throw Frisbees, the potato salad gets iffy, and the flies die from happiness. You may think you have overeaten, but it is patriotism.” And especially in the U.S. equity markets, June has generated considerable fireworks. Declining -8.4% in price in June and -20.6% for the first half of 2022, the S&P 500 index finished its worst first half performance in 52 years (in 1970; and it is worth keeping in mind that in the second half of that year, the S&P 500 generated a price gain of +27%).

For the 12 S&P 500 bear markets since World War II — excluding this year’s — the price decline has averaged -34% and the bear market length has averaged 10 months. If the current bear market adheres to this average performance, approximately 61% of the total damage has occurred, and approximately 70% of the bear market’s time duration has transpired.

The S&P 500‘s decline represents its fourth-worst first-half performance ever, only behind the price losses in 1932 (- 45.4%), 1962 (-23.5%), and 1970 (-21.0%). Also,

  • Investors reacted to still elevated inflation readings; softening retail sales; slowing PMI services and manufacturing data; the Federal Reserve’s 75-basis point policy rate increase on June 15th; very gradual reopening signs in the pandemic lockdown in China; and back-and-forth news in the Ukraine
  • In descending  order,  the  June  price  performance  of  the  11  S&P  500  industry  sectors  was:  Healthcare  -2.5%; Consumer  Staples  -2.8%;  Communication  Services  -6.2%;  Utilities  -6.2%;  Real  Estate  -7.5%;  Industrials  -7.8%; Information Technology -8.2%; Consumer Discretionary -9.5%; Financials -10.3%; Materials-13.0%; and Energy -15.3%.


Monthly and Year-to-Date Price Performance
Index/Commodity Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. YTD)
S&P 500 -5.3% -3.1% +3.6% -8.8% 0.0% -8.4% -20.6%
Nasdaq Composite -9.0% -3.4% +3.4% -13.3% -2.1% -8.7% -29.5%
Russell 2000 -9.7% +1.0% +1.1% -10.0% 0.0% -8.4% -23.9%
Gold -1.8% +5.8% +2.6% -2.0% -3.5% -2.1% -1.3%
West Texas Intermed.


+16.8% +8.6% +4.8% +4.4% +9.5% -7.8% +40.6%
Source: The Wall Street Journal, and Yahoo Fina nce. July 1 , 2022.

As highlighted in the nearby price performance table, after a volatile trading month in June, the S&P 500 finished down -8.4% (3785.38 on June 30th versus 4132.95 on May 31st). The Nasdaq Composite registered an -8.7% decline in June, and the Russell 2000 index of small- and mid-cap companies fell -8.4% over the month.

Over the course of June, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices declined -7.8%, from $114.67 per barrel on May 31st to $105.76 per barrel on June 30th. The global oil demand continues to reflect signs of China’s Covid-19 lockdowns easing; slowing momentum in the global economy; fuel shortages; low levels of inventories and spare capacity limited to a few countries; and precautionary buying, while supply is impacted by :

  • the four-month Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to create significant demand and supply disruptions;
  • several nations, especially the U.S. and including certain allies, have launched the release of crude oil from their respective strategic reserves
  • consolidating S. shale producers have not excessively increased output in reaction to higher crude prices (as shown in the nearby chart) and have followed production discipline and exerted capital spending restraint; and
  • following the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting on Thursday, June 30th, the group (which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and other countries) agreed to keep the rate of their monthly output increases at an agreed pace of 648,000 barrels per day in August of this year, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates likely to account for most of the supply increases.


The next OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, August 3rd, when the organization is expected to decide on production quotas for September.


As a widely used input in the construction industry and in many manufacturing processes, so-called “Dr. Copper” is reputed to have a “Ph. D. in economics” because of the red metal’s perceived ability to foretell turning points in the global economy. The nearby chart shows that copper prices have exhibited a declining trend of late, perhaps reflecting lessening shortages, bottlenecks, and other supply-driven inflationary forces.

And copper is not the only commodity to have exhibited recent price weakness. As depicted in the nearby chart, versus their 52-week highs, numerous other commodities have declined to a considerable degree versus their 52-week highs in the energy, precious metals, base metals, and agricultural sectors.

These declines notwithstanding, their still-high absolute levels and especially, rising labor and occupancy costs have contributed to businesses’ and consumers’ elevated inflation expectations. These future price beliefs are monitored closely by the Federal Reserve to ascertain whether high inflation expectations are getting anchored in: (i) wage and salary expectations; (ii) consumers’ spending patterns, and (iii) corporate pricing behavior.

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

As shown in the nearby charts, following a significant interval of very low nominal yields throughout most of the 2020-2021 Covid-pandemic experience, short- and intermediate-term U.S. Treasury interest rates have risen significantly in 2022.

These increased yields have been in response to: (i) quickening U.S. economic activity; (ii) rising expectations of inflation; and (iii) increasingly restrictive monetary policy.

At the end of June, three-month nominal U.S. Treasury bill yields had risen to 1.69%, versus 0.06% on December 31, 2021, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields had increased to nearly 3.50% by mid-June, up from 1.52% on December 31, 2021.

Following a 75-basis point increase on June 14-15 in the FOMC’s fed funds target monetary policy rate, to a 1.50%- 1.75% range, a number of FOMC voting members have been advocating for a second 75-basis point hike in the target fed funds rate at the upcoming July 26-27 meeting. If enacted, that would lift the target monetary policy rate to a 2.25–2.50% range by the end of July.

At this point, we are of the opinion that the Fed is likely inclined to continue monetary tightening in order to:

  • slow inflation through (a) the direct effect of higher interest rates on the real economy, as well as through (b) asset price declines in the highly financialized S. economy;
  • buttress the central bank’s inflation fighting credentials; and
  • “store up” higher levels of policy interest rates in order to be able to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts as recessionary episodes


The economy may continue to slow in response to:

  • elevated rates of inflation crimping overall demand;
  • continued increases in monetary policy interest rates; and
  • Quantitative Tightening (monthly reductions in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, increasing from a $47.5 billion rate in June, July, and August to a monthly rate of $95.0 billion commencing September 1), our stance at this point is to remain flexible and data dependent, before beginning in the coming year to modestly add funds to longer duration fixed-income securities and to other beneficiaries of declining interest rates.


Economy and Corporate Profits

The IMF projects +3.7% real GDP growth for the U.S. in 2022 and +2.3% in 2023 (versus the FOMC’s median projection of +1.7% real GDP growth for the U.S. in 2022 and +1.7% in 2023). Also worth noting in the chart are significant slowdowns in World Output (+3.6% in 2022, versus +6.1% in 2021), as well as in the GDP of the Euro Area (+2.8%, down from +5.3% in 2021), China (+4.4%, down from +8.1% in 2021), Brazil (+0.8%, down from + 4.6% in 2021), Mexico (+2.0%, down from +4.8% in 2021), and South Africa (+1.9%, down from +4.9% in 2021). Against a backdrop of slowing Purchasing Managers Indices (Manufacturing, as well as Services), and possibly a recessionary GDP path unfolding, we are focused on the implications for corporate earnings per share results.

According to analysts’ estimates collected by I/B/E/S Refinitiv and tabulated by Yardeni Research, S&P 500 earnings per share are projected to grow +11.6% in 1Q22, +5.1% in 2Q22, +10.7% in 3Q22, and +10.0% in 4Q22, with full-year earnings growth projected to be +9.9% in 2022 and +9.7% in 2023. The nearby chart shows the possibility of downward revisions to earnings per share growth in the coming quarters and call for vigilant attention to be paid to Chief Executive Officers’ and Chief Financial Officers’ comments about the forward outlook on their companies’ earnings calls which will begin in the middle of July.

Our Team has further developed our scenario set to reflect the current environment:

Scenario Employment Inflation GDP
Base Case Slightly higher as
participation rate increases
Peak Reached Protracted Contraction
Negative Case Unexpected spike due to
negative corporate earnings
Peak is still in the future Multi-quarter contraction
Positive Case Participation goes higher with no
uptick in UR
Peak Reached and supply chains quickly resolve issues Early 2022 contraction is an anomaly; GDP expands faster than EM in 2022/23

We will monitor these developments as they continue to unfold in the coming quarters. Given the risks that may lie ahead, here is a summary of our MACRO portfolio positioning as it stands within our committee.

The pockets of market and economic difficulty continue to come and go as the world continues to reshuffle after the shock of the pandemic shutdown more than two years ago. While this has persisted in some parts of the world, we are often reminded that we must move forward and deal with issues at hand through the institutions we’ve created. The mid-term elections are coming up fast and we will once again undoubtedly turn our eyes towards Washington in the coming months, thirsty for leadership in the face of inflation and divisiveness.

Procyon serves as a fiduciary to our clients, and making sure that each family, business, and individual is well looked after is at the heart of what we do. During these difficult markets we are prudently operating on your behalf, as well as those who rely on you for many years into the future. Please contact us if you have questions about how the current environment is impacting your investments.

Thank you for the trust you place in us.

Best Regards,

Procyon Partners

The US Stock market entered a bear market recently, dropping -20% from the previous high which occurred on January 3rd. We’re now five months into the bear market which we know doesn’t feel good for anyone. Our Investment Committee has composed the following information for you in the hope of providing some helpful perspective on the current market environment.

This year stock and bond markets are clearly responding to high inflation, the Federal Reserve’s effort to cool inflation with rate hikes, and the growing threat of a recession from said rate hikes.

Most recently the May inflation reading was higher than expected and the Fed reacted on Wednesday June 15th by raising interest rates by 75 bps, 25 bps more than was expected a week ago. But the market initially took that as a good sign that the Fed can tame inflation, with the S&P 500 rising 1.4% for the day. Showcasing that sometimes “bad news” is “good news” for the markets in a perverse sort of way.

Let’s look at the volatility we’ve been experiencing and what today’s realities are.

Pessimism is high, markets have been shaken, consumers are paying more for everything and for several months the Fed has been playing “catch-up”. Trying to slow inflation back to its target of 2% on average and now we’re in a “bear market” to boot! To define that term, a bear market is the “experience when securities prices fall by 20% or more over a sustained period of time.” Bear markets are also generally accompanied by possible economic downturns, widespread pessimism, and negative investor sentiment.

The nearby table highlights some recent bear markets and how different sectors performed. Sometimes they can last years, other times, like in 2020, they were over in a month with the median length being seven months.

While painful, bear markets are a natural part of investing. They are not completely unexpected, and we have been discussing the increasing probability of a recession for a few quarters now. We’d like to highlight a quote from famed value investor Shelby Cullom Davis “You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” He was referring to both the new opportunities created by buying quality companies at cheaper prices, as well as having the discipline to stick it out.

So, let’s dig into that a bit more. Bear markets occur more often than most realize.

As the table illustrates, we have had sixteen bear markets since 1950. The most infamous bear market occurred during the great depression from 1929 to 1932, when stocks fell 84% from their highs and did not fully recover until 1945. In the 1960’s there were two difficult bear markets as the Fed grappled with inflationary pressures during that period. In the 1970s, due to continued high inflation, an oil crisis, and the collapse of key economic agreements between nations, stocks fell about 50% from their peak in 1973. 2000 was the three- year dot-com bust, 2008 was the great recession from the mortgage crisis and then of course 2020’s covid bear.

What has the Procyon Investment Committee been doing?

Over the last several quarters our expectation for continued inflation and market turbulence has risen steadily. While our portfolios have experienced a reduction in market values, we have made and continue to make changes in anticipation of the volatility. The main allocation factors in place throughout our portfolio construction and management have been the following:

While we are happy with some results, others have not protected portfolios as much as we would have hoped. Bonds have experienced the worst start to the year in decades, failing to act as a hedge for portfolios as equities fell. As an example, the 7-10 year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) has a YTD return of -13.49%, with the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) down -25.06% year to date. Over most periods of economic turbulence these widely held investments provide a risk-off ballast to a difficult equity market and will tend to hold their value – that has not been the case thus far in 2022.

We often say the markets are forward-looking and respond to the prospects of the situation getting marginally better or worse; not a straight “good or bad,” but rather how are things changing at the margin and what is our trajectory? Given what we face today there are some important investing points to consider as we position portfolios. We also tend to think in terms of probabilities of outcomes; not absolutes.

While fiscal and monetary stimulus had a role in spiking inflation, both of those are now reversing. The Fed is raising rates, reducing monetary stimulus, and the US Congress is no longer actively discussing further fiscal stimulus. While new variants of covid continue to pop up, the pandemic shock is receding, and supply chains are trending towards normal. Also on the positive side is the low level of unemployment and the increasing participation rate with workers drawn back into the workforce by higher wages.

Recently the 30-year mortgage rate reached 6%! Existing home sales are down -5.9% (a/o 4/22) versus a year earlier, and vehicle purchases have screeched to a halt just recently. While this is bad if you want to buy a new house, it will slow the housing market helping to cool inflation pressures.

Consumer sentiment has also slipped to a trough of 58.4 (shown above). Consumer confidence metrics point to the potential for higher expected equity market returns in the future as well.

As we write this, markets are reacting positively to the rate news as they cheer on the commitment to reducing inflation by the Fed. The coming days and months will prove how effective the Fed can be in mitigating inflationary pressures, but we are confident an aggressive approach is prudent. What remains to be seen is whether they will be able to achieve their “soft landing” of slowing inflation without causing a recession.

We will conclude with a final reminder that Procyon uses a client’s financial plan as the bedrock of any investment strategy. Helping clients achieve their goals with their own individual risk appetite is important. The financial plan itself makes use of Monte Carlo statistical probabilities to incorporate these inevitable bear market slumps that occur along the way into our long-term planning.

In July please be on the lookout for our full analysis of the second quarter and a more complete discussion on the possible outcomes ahead as we see them. As always thank you for the trust and confidence; we will get through this period together. Please call us if you have any questions, concerns, or to simply talk further.

The Procyon Investment Committee